FNB Editorial: Let’s Start the Oscar Talk!

We are of the opinion that this whole, “ten films get nominated for Best Picture this year because we really want to open the field to more movies and not because we’re pandering to the lowest common denominator and want to increase ratings on the Academy Awards broadcast” thing is full of shenanigans, but since that’s the way it is, and this is our last editorial of 2009, we’ll play along and make some predictions.

There are certain things about the Oscars that, if you are experienced viewers like us, are fairly easy to predict, like, say, the “prestigious” film made by an “important” director (i.e., “The Lovely Bones” and Peter Jackson) getting a nomination, but because the field has been doubled, it’s a bit trickier in that films that might have been on the borderline before are pretty certain to get into the ring. We saw “Invictus” the other day and would be willing to bet a lot of money that it will get one of those ten coveted slots. We haven’t seen “Avatar” yet (though we’re on record about our excitement level), but we’d be willing to bet just about every penny we have that the King of the World is going to be back in the running for Best Picture a dozen years after he won for “Titanic.”

So, that’s two. Eight to go. We haven’t seen every film yet, but we’ve seen most of the relevant ones, and have a feeling about others like, say, “Nine” (we saw it on Broadway, and think the movie will be pretty similar, in that it will be a wonderful spectacle, filled to the brim with glitz and pretty darn entertaining, but ultimately lacking in substance). Pencil that one in, too, actually, because with the resurgence of musicals, we think the odds are pretty good that this one (especially one starring Daniel Day-Lewis, Penelope Cruz, Nicole Kidman, Marion Cotillard, Sophia Loren and Dame Judi Dench — wow, how many Oscars is that?) is going to be on the short list at the Kodak Theater.

We think that “The Hurt Locker” — still the best film we’ve seen this year — is a given, and we loved “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” but think there’s only one animated film that will get through the wire (we’ll come to that one, keep reading), and even though we haven’t yet seen “The Lovely Bones,” we have the sense that it’s the kind of movie that members of the Academy adore, so let’s throw that one in the mix, too. We enjoyed “Inglorious Basterds,” and even though it’s a bit of a lark, it’s the best movie Quentin Tarantino has made since his masterful “Pulp Fiction,” thus we think it’ll make the cut. We think “The Road” and “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” are ultimately too depressing to get into the final round (and one of those, and we’ve seen both, is just plain awful, but we won’t say which one, because we don’t do reviews here at FNB), but “Up in the Air” is right on the money and can be considered a pretty solid bet for slot number seven. Also, with the success of “Up,” and the universal love of Pixar films, we think that’s our eighth pick.

That leaves us with two, so we’re going to be bold in predicting the final duo, because it’s been a fairly weak year and we want to shake things up a bit: With the field twice as large and people scrambling to fill it, we think that more than one indie film (aside from “The Hurt Locker”) will get in the door. The choices are, the way we see it, between “(500) Days of Summer,” “Young Victoria,” “An Education,” “A Serious Man,” “Brothers,” “G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra” (kidding! Just making sure you’re still paying attention!), “Crazy Heart” and “District 9.” Solid choices all, but we’ll go with the Coen Brothers and say that “A Serious Man” makes the cut.

For the last choice, we’re going to write something totally ridiculous and stupid, but not necessarily false: We think the tenth and final Best Pic nom will be an out-of-left-field choice, a popcorn movie that made a lot of money and pleased a lot of people (us included), that relaunched a dead franchise and made us all want to go boldly where no man has gone before. Yes, it’s true, we think “Star Trek” is going to get a Best Picture nomination. Forgive us. Please.

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