FNB Editorial: Oscar Talk, Part Deux

A month ago, give or take, we made our early predictions about what would be the 10 nominees for best picture next month. Well, now that we’ve seen almost every film that has an even remote chance to make that list (we’re still short a couple but, rest assured, our diligence is fierce), we’ve decided to slightly modify said predictions and, at the same time, come clean about something of which we’re not terribly proud.

First and foremost, we’re going to stand by seven of our 10 choices, those being, in no particular order, “The Hurt Locker,” “Avatar,” “Invictus,” “Up in the Air,” “A Serious Man,” “Up” and “Inglorious Basterds.” It seems to us that each of those is a given in what has been a fairly weak year (and, one more time, we’re going to belt it out to the back row that “The Hurt Locker” is far and away our leader in the clubhouse), so the question is, what’s going to happen with the last three? Originally, the other trio of flicks we mentioned were “Nine,” “The Lovely Bones” and “Star Trek.” Looking back on it, we sort of regret two of those choices, and have renewed doubts about the third.

But first, the admission: we ruled out a movie last time because, quite frankly, we didn’t like it, rather than because we didn’t think it would get nominated. We let our personal feelings get in the way of common sense about how the academy thinks and the kinds of films they honor, not to mention the critical acclaim it received. We are talking, of course, about “Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire.” We know plenty of people who loved it, and the fundamental truth is that it’s pretty much a lock for a best picture nom, not to mention adapted screenplay, actress and supporting actress (and maybe director). So, we’re sorry we let our personal issues get in the way of a somewhat clinical analysis (though, admittedly, we’re fairly sure we take ourselves more seriously than you take us), and while we can’t promise it will never happen again, we can promise we’ll try really, really hard to prevent it.

Phew! We feel better already. And with that off our chest, we’re going to come back to the final two choices. Having seen both “Nine” and “The Lovely Bones,” we would normally find them both unworthy on their own, but the truth is, it’s the general box office failure of each that make us think it’s safe to rule them out. Instead, a couple more indies have a good shot. A major entertainment magazine we enjoy reading thinks that “An Education” and “The Messenger” will be the picks, and while the former is a solid possibility, we tend to think “The Hurt Locker” will be the only movie about the war in Iraq to be honored. Also, Woody Harrelson is a shoo-in for a supporting actor nom (as we intimated, actually, when we wrote about the film in November), which we think will be the main honor the film receives. Also, while we think “Crazy Heart” is probably the second best movie we saw this year, it strikes us as the kind of thing where Jeff Bridges’ out of this world performance will finally result in the best actor Oscar he’s deserved for a very long time and, aside from a best song nomination for “The Weary Kind,” that’ll be that.

The more we think about it, the more we keep coming back to a couple of movies that just have something to them and thus, we think, will get them on that short list for honors at the Kodak next month. “District 9″ and “(500) Days of Summer.” There, we said it. One of those two, and possibly “An Education,” will make the cut. We think.

Oh, and about “Star Trek”? The truth is, we liked it a whole hell of a lot, and just want it to get nominated for the sake of it. So, while we have our doubts, we’re going to stick to our guns and insist that it’s going to make the list. (And that promise we made above? About not letting personal issues get in the way of anaylsis? That didn’t last long, did it? Oh, well …)

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